Monday, November 25, 2013

Update on Yesterday's Post

The swings happened today.  I bought initial stakes in both AG and EXK, 7% each.  Strength tomorrow (a break of the trend line) I will add UGL 15%. 

In more interesting news, I'm wondering about Silvercorp again.  Gone are the days of the mysterious Wynter Benton, but I'll likely stay away.  Too much funny business.  Still, I'm going to keep my eye on them.  There is an allure there!  Check this out:  Silvercorp Valuation Outlook

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Tracked Miners Update

Here's an update of the miners I've been tracking.  Only a couple are up from May, and most are down since September.  Cycle timing-wise, a buy opportunity is coming up.  The timing hasn't worked out predictably for all of the juniors, SilverCrest being the exception. 


Silver Wheaton and First Majestic will be two of my pics to buy when this final intermediate decline shows a swing.  Two tranches:  one on the daily swing, a second on a weekly swing.  I will also buy Endeavor (EXK) and a leveraged metal (UGL or AGQ). 


You can see from First Majestic's daily chart above that most of the conditions from a technical perspective are satisfied for exhaustion selling to be close: RSI 7, MACD, and SlowStochs are all showing oversold, with the SlowStoch embedded for the last two and a half weeks.  A breakdown from the lower BB at $9.44 could have this thing selling all the way down to $8.85 range, so Monday's behavior will be important to watch--I would not buy unless there is a swing into the close. Stops would be at the swing.  Breakouts have been convincingly through the 10dma, and retests per se haven't really occurred, as closes back below the 10dma have signaled further and enduring declines.  Cycles-wise, the three guys I trust are all saying we're due--including my favorite free one here:  Beneath the Surface


 The weekly chart for First Majestic shows similar conditions over the longer term--momentum indicators are oversold, although the RSI isn't as low as can be typical for intermediate cycle lows.  However, I've learned that, if this is the first intermediate cycle out of a yearly cycle low (last June), then momentum indicators may not be severely oversold when the second intermediate cycle begins.  The key is to watch for a weekly swing.  In this case, that would be a close above $10.50.  Sometimes there will be a narrow weekly range, which "eases the parameters" for the weekly swing to be met the following week.  I will watch for both.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Picks Update from May 20th Post

Just a quick post of updates to the May 20th "Picks" post.  Some good, some bad.  I continue to like Tinka, despite the performance since May!


Obviously, yesterday was a nice day to hold miners.  Some are saying the short squeeze is "on" and now it's just time to hold.  I agree, but was only able to put half my money where my mouth is, selling both NUGT and half AGQ positions while they were green. 

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Selling and Buying

Today I sold my First Majestic (FR.TO), a 7% stake of my portfolio, which takes my total First Majestic down to zero.  I'll buy more at next cycle low, but I might split the allocation with Endeavor, since it outperformed.  I was a little worried about FR because it was both rejected by the 10dma and failed to move up through volume price support; it could go down to $13.50s, which about where I originally bought it ($13.65) back on 8/12. 

I also bought a little more Tinka toward the close today.  Sort of silly to see this breakdown, but as this is one I want to own long term, I didn't hesitate to add as it broke down below it's old lower bound of .68 to .65.  This was a sell the news-type fluctuation, I think, as Tinka just posted news today, reflecting more silver-laden drill results.  Go figure:)  Tinka Drill Results--NEWS

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Buying and Selling

Sold positions from August 8 today, including SLW, AGQ, and GDX.  I also *bought* more Tinka today at .69.  I will be looking to reload after a correction, and will post when I do.  Endeavor has been doing GREAT, but I'm not sure if it will have the most gas left. 

Happy trading! 

Friday, August 9, 2013

Leaders Today

Here is a quick list of the leaders I'm watching:  First Majestic, Endeavor, PanAm, Silvercorp, Silver Wheaton; and for juniors, Scorpio and Alexco are doing well.  Stops have been moved up on yesterdays large positions in GDX, AGQ, and SLW, so unless there's some major premarket action, should profit at least 6% on the miner positions.  Tinka did move up today, but only to .74, so I could not excersise my exit target of .75.  SantaCruz is down slightly, but this is a move down from the upper BB (10,1.9) about halfway to the 10dma.  Not worried (yet).

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Buying Today

Like many other PM watchers, I was a buyer today.  I bought SLW, TK.V, AGQ, SCZ.V, and GDX.  I have stops on the larger positions (SLW, AGQ, GDX) but not on the juniors.  Tinka seems to have reestablished it's pattern of lagging a day behind the mining sector.  Tomorrow will test this. I bought at .69, and will sell this tranche when (if?) TK gets back to .75, which would represent an 8.7% profit.  Fine by me. 

SLW looked glorious today:



Friday, July 26, 2013

Weak Sauce

Taking profits here on OLE and SCZ.  I'll leave the Tinka position on since the range feels more established.  Weak sauce here from the little miners.  Plus, gold just broke down some more, and the dollar looks to me primed for a bounce.  I'm also selling a UGL position from a couple weeks ago for a small gain--basically enough for some chicken teriyaki for lunch! LOL.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Adding Some

I added to positions today in TK, SCZ, and OLE, which looks good on the daily chart going into the close, while the weekly had shown a swing and the MACD has turned up.  Small position with this setup.  Check it out: 

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Muppet Miners--Price update

Just wanted to post an update of the spreadsheet this week from the miners I've been watching.  The big winner is First Majestic, which continues to have massive output, and a gain of 32% in two months since the spreadsheet was originally posted.  The big loser is Alexco, which has had to implement cost-saving measures as the metal prices have dropped. 


I'm going to be adding a few more miners to the tracking sheet, including SantaCruz (SCZ) and Gold One (GDO).  Other smaller ones to watch include KOR, ORG, OLE, ORV, RPM, SSP, and USA.

Tinka closed above the 10dma with no upper tail on the candle, so that looks initially positive.  However, this isn't confirmed by either strength on the weekly chart or price support from the underlying metal (silver). 


The only trade I've made in a while was a few USO puts a few weeks ago.  Those didn't work out as oil seems to have caught a speculative bid, and continues to climb.  Right now, waiting to see how oil responds to being overbought and how miners respond relative to their PMs.  Long term, though, I'm excited about these smaller miners, as cost saving requirements are forcing management to take a more serious view of spending and also of borrowing.  Hopefully, not too many are hedging in order to make this happen... 

Saturday, June 22, 2013

For Whom the Tinka Bell Tolls...

Last time I checked in on June 3, I wrote: "I will add back the 2% if there's either (a) a successful retest of the 200dma, or if (b) it's going to close above the 50dma."  Neither of those criteria materialized, however, in spite of some strength from gold in the interceding weeks. As you can see in the chart below, after being rejected by the 200dma, the lower BB was tested, and then .70 became the new floor.  Friday saw an almost 10cent range, closing strong with a long lower tail at .79, just above the middle BB, which in my preferred setting uses Ira E's 18-day average of closes.  The bar has got a lot lower since the June 3 post, where the 50dma was then above the 200, it is now below it. Overhead resistance next week should be at .83, then .86, then .88. Friday showed strength for the miners in general, though, so Monday will probably be weak, especially if the metals continue lower (and double-especially after the CME 25% margin hike sinks in).  Just looking at the daily chart, I don't see a whole lot to get excited about here with all the overhead resistance, the embedded stochastic low, and the RSI 7 in no-man's land.  Plus, the latest news out of Tinka headquarters, from almost 2 weeks ago, is that they found some zinc.  *yawn*  Still, if it can break through resistance at the 50 and then successfully retest it on the downside, I'll buy a little.  On the lower end, if it is rejected by the 50, I would set a buy order at .70, since that has been a good buy zone for the last month.


The weekly chart is a bit more interesting, in my opinion. As you can see in the chart below, the last couple times there was a lower BB crash--in October '11 and later in December '11--the stock recovered the middle BB.  After first recovering the middle BB in November, there was a retest of the lower BB, then up above the middle AND holding above the 50wma almost in its entirety, with the exception of a bit of weakness from June-August '12. So what I want to see on this chart is a retest of the lower BB, followed by a strong move to close above the 50wma.  That gives me confidence. 

I also want to see some *new* drill news.  If I go back to the news releases from late December '11 to early January '12, what I see is evidence of "finding what we expected," mineralization-wise.  Look at this language from the release (emphasis mine):  "Hole16 intercepted banded, "zebra-stripe" sandstone and progressed into the underlying siltstone breccia and fluidized sulphide unit. This unit is generally quite thin or nonexistent, but it marks the transition between the underlying Pucura limestone and the overlying Goyllar sandstone unit that hosts the bulk of the silver mineralization at Zone 1. The hole intercepted the high grade veins/faults/gossan zones within the sandstone roughly perpendicular to the dip of the hole, while the intervening fracture-controlled mineralization in the sandstone was intercepted at about 45 degrees to the inclination of the drill hole, on average."  I want to see language like this where there is a marked transition to quality mineralization--from zinc to AG.  

Monday, June 3, 2013

Tinka Update--Booking Profit

Tinka was rejected by the 50dma, so I'm going to book profits here from the .77 tranche.  Not a lot, but I'll take it.  I'm still holding the 3.5% from .91 from April.  I will add back the 2% if there's either (a) a successful retest of the 200dma, or if (b) it's going to close above the 50dma. 

Friday, May 31, 2013

Just Nibblin' (on TK.V)

Got a little more Tinka when it dropped below .80 per the plan.  Should have waited as it went as low as .67 the next day, but my order (2%) filled at .77.  I was glad today to see it up a bit, but since most other miners were down, I'm curious to see if the old pattern of lagging a day behind the mining sector still holds for good old TK.V.  I wasn't bold enough to buy anything else just yet, but I'm watching the stock market for weakness.  Hopefully if there is a top soon, the big boys will begin to rotate back into PMs and miners.

Here's the Tinka chart:


Monday, May 20, 2013

Muppet Miner Positioning and Updates

It's been a month--so I decided to put up some numbers I'm watching.  I've not been trading actively during that month, but contemplating how to trade more methodically.  To that end, I've made myself a spreadsheet with the miners I'm watching, most of which I've traded in the past or still hold.  Currently, I have small positions still in TK, SWD, and SLW.   I will be posting the sheet from time to time--most likely on days when I adjust a price target or buy/sell. 









I'm still nervous about miners because of bullishness I'm reading on the message boards.  However, I will start to reenter in the near future--the above are first tranche prices only.

The Gold:HUI ratio is starting to look better, at least based on the MACD and the declining oversold RSI.

 

On the other hand, the Dow:Gold ratio still looks to have momentum, despite it uber-stretched position over virtually all of its weekly moving-average indicators.  I took profits on my limited involvement in stocks back in February, so if I had some more, I would definitely be well into trimming now.  This ratio is ridiculous, if not historically so...


Monday, April 22, 2013

Still here, still sober.

Tinka has been range-bound for the last week, basically oscillating between .86-.91.  Buying the .86 and selling here gives you almost 6%.  I'm putting an order for this tomorrow, a stinker, at .85.  We'll see if it works.


First Majestic, Silver Wheaton, Silvercorp, SilverCrest... all cheap. Alexco looks crazy cheap on the heels the silver/gold smash last week--in retrospect, I think Alexco's price breaking down from it's range was the tell.  My bias and the pro-cyclicality of thought assumed that the range would continue.  Thank god for stops... but... sill massively oversold. From this month's press release:  "Accordingly, as we progress through the second and third quarters we will be sequencing back into higher grade areas of the mine. We continue to expect to produce approximately 1.9 to 2.1 million ounces from the Bellekeno mine in 2013."  I think I'm going to start back in at these levels.  While staying away from GDX, GDXJ, NUGT from now on.

In other news, Netflix is up 25% in AH.  Crazy times.  Miners are undervalued and hated, while virtual happiness streams to 25% gains.  Welcome to the Matrix!


Monday, April 15, 2013

95% Trimmed

Sold half of the Tinka at 0.91, a little lower than planned.  Today is brutal.  I have a sell order in for FR, too.  I'm not going to sell SWD at this point.  This is not how most investors invisioned it, right?  Time to practice some Zen.  All I have to say is that I'm glad I'm only 37 and I didn't have that much to risk in the first place.  If I were retired, or on fixed income, and caught in this, it would be a different outlook, I'm sure.  For now, I just feel a case of the coulda woulda shouldas.... Back to the drawing board.

Another opportunity will present itself.  To learn from mistakes is where the real pride will come from.

Mining Muppet... signing off.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Mining Insanity

As if holding GDX and NUGT over the last 6 months weren't crazy enough... Now production the US's second largest silver mine and the world's largest copper mine has just imploded via landslide:

LOOK OUT BELOW -10% OF U.S. SILVER SUPPLY JUST SLID AWAY 

Predictions on how this will impact the PM and mining sectors?  The blogosphere holds that the selling will continue.  We'll find out starting in 3 minutes when the Asian markets open.

Edit:  Selling Friday sucked, but I can say now that I'm glad I sold what I did, and wished I had sold more.  This takedown is EPIC.  Here's a little tinfoil, which should be of a little comfort if you're like me:  Assault on Gold

Friday, April 12, 2013

Tapping Out

Back on Monday, I asked the question on Twitter "why is Eric Sprott unloading PSLV shares?"  I mean, the guy and his team advertise as perma-bulls on KWN.  Why is Sprott Selling PSLV?  Now I guess we know why...

I tapped out on some old positions (from back in October 2012) today, for big losses.  The move below 1523 meant the prior low on the weekly chart established in December 2011 had been violated.  For me, that was time to eat my losses.  And they were big.  I closed GDX and GDXJ positions from then, a First Majestic position from November just after the election, and AGQ and UGL positions from February.  When all was said and done, 25% of my account was toast.  Not an easy pill to swallow, but in the case of this washout, the momentum was too much for this Muppet.  

What do I still have?  Only my Canadian account remains intact, which includes Tinka, Sunward, First Majestic (FR--my oldest position from March 2012 that I bought for what at the time was a screaming deal at $16).  In my long term account, I still have TGLDX (Toqueville Gold Fund) and some bonds (DLTNX).  Toqueville seems to have repositioned some of their portfolio with shorts, as I've seen them up on down days.  Bonds are doing fine.



Tinka is in jeopardy of getting sold for a loss here, too, unfortunately.  I was looking to sell 50% today if the close looked like it would be below .94--it closed at .96.  I will keep the same strategy Monday, and will exit the entire position should it close below the last cycle low at .83.  These would represent 16% and 26% losses on the position, respectively. 

Should that happen, this blog will be renamed "The Drinking Muppet," and content will be adjusted accordingly.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Trades and News

I'll start off with AXU.  For the second time, I was stopped out of this trade, this time at $2.56--yesterday's low at $2.51 looks now like it marks the bottom:  there was a swing low--WAY LOW--today.  In retrospect, it looks like a good time to take the trade on the swing... but I didn't do it.  Twice was enough. If it can close above the 18 dma, maybe I'll think about it.  Ultimately, this is one I want to own, and at these prices, it seems like a good value play.  I'm just bitter now!  Here's the chart:

Technically, there's not too much of a better set up if you like the value and fundamentals of a company.  I just got suspicious that something is going on behind the scenes even though I like the *published* story of Alexco.  I'll probably buy back in a day or two--I'll post that trade.

What I did add today is more Tinka.  I couldn't resist the low prices and my Muppet brain told me "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  My plan was to get invested into Tinka up to 15% of my account.  With today's addition at $1.02, I now have an average entry price of $1.12 and am invested 26%.  Yikes!  Getting down into the .90s seems to have triggered some stops AND some limit orders.  The close was at $1.03, which looks like a good reversal to me (longish tail).

The trend with Tinka has been to lag a day behind the mining sector, which had a good day today. That, coupled with (A) the turn on the SloStoch, (B) the dip into RSI 7--which has signaled turns thus far on the daily and for the last 1.5 years, and (C) large support at .97-.98 (thanks for the lesson, Mr. M), gave me the courage to break from my plan and add a little more.  I will be very cautious with this overage.

In other news:

The chart for a larger miner, Allied Nevada (ANV) looks strong today, and looks like the bottom is in (thanks to Alex at BBT for pointing that one out).

First Majestic (AG) has good news from their Del Toro mine:  Del Toro Silver Mine Flotation Circuit Deemed Commercial

SilverCrest (SVLC) continues to expand one of it's deposits: SilverCrest Deposits Expanded

Plus interesting results from Aurcana (AUN), a small miner that I like, but haven't seen a set up to buy yet, especially given the action the last couple days.  It's one to keep on the radar, though:  Larger, more complex mineralization at Shafter

In silly news, I'm sure most of you saw the chart for FSLR.  If you've not yet seen it, it rivals the NFLX chart from the day after their earnings last time.  It's a (solar) rocket!

Finally, Kyle Bass is perplexed at gold's low price.  A good watch: Kyle Bass: 'I'm perplexed'

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Alexco, Tinka, and Sunward Updates

Today, I used proceeds for yesterday's humiliating NUGT liquidation to bid Tinka at $1.04 and buy back Alexco at $2.62, but it was again a small opening tranche position.  Unfortunately, only one-quarter of the Tinka bid was filled.  Although I never bought any more Sunward (SWD), it was up 22% today.  Nice to see some green.


I'm really starting to get intrigued by Alexco.  I see it as a more credible Silvercorp, in the sense that it is one of a handful of primary silver producers in the world, and someone is shorting or selling the crap out of it despite results.  Someone doesn't want it "looking good."  That's the tinfoil hat talking, I know, but I can't help to wonder what non-news would drive the price down in spite of good results.

Update 4/5/13:  Put a stop on AXU after the close at the days low of $2.56.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Failure, Disappointment--Lessons Learned

Guess what?  I was 20/20 trading Tinka last year.  This year so far, I'm 11/14.  It's easy when you just have to BTFD.  However, all that profit was equalized today as I closed a NUGT position I entered around $12 for a 64% loss.  It sucks.  Tinka is a stock I didn't "follow" anyone into trade-wise.  The NUGT position was the Muppet in me listening to others that thought it was perfect for making money.  Of course, those same others said to set stops, take a smaller position, etc., but I heard what I wanted to, breaking my rule of no leverage, and breaking my rule of not following the crowd.  Muppet indeed....

Tinka is at $1.12 today.  My average position entry is at $1.14, so hopefully I can get back on track once this DCL is in. 

*bort*

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Tinka Order

Filled today at $1.08, a small order.  Last of the bunch.  Gold's daily cycle low should be coming up soon, so I don't predict the price will go down that much.

The Alexco trade from last week didn't work out, as I used a stop at $3.26 on that one, which was hit.  Alexco has had good news coming out recently as well.   I think I'm going to wait on a swing low and just repurchase the shares I was stopped out on at a lower price.  I still like their story. 

No charts for today. 

Monday, April 1, 2013

The April Fool: Mining Muppet

Well, I blew it today--the April Fools joke is on me.  My plan after the third tranche was to hold UNLESS THERE WAS A BB CRASH using Ira E's 18, 1.9 BB setting.  We got it today.  I noticed right before class started, and figured I'd take the trade at break.  When I noticed, price of TK.V was down to $1.08; it would go as low as $1.07.  However, 90 minutes later, it's up for the day!  Back to $1.15.


Granted, I was only going to take another 3.5%.  But still, to get that reversal, had I followed my plan and struck while the iron was hot, it would have been a nice 6.5% gain in just one trading day.  Oh well, lesson learned.  You snooze, you lose, Muppet.  However, since miners were generally down today, I'll put in a bid at the open for what I lost out on today, 3.5% at $1.08.  I doubt I'll get it, but no harm in trying to rectify my error.

Check out these other April Fools' Muppet outtakes:  http://youtu.be/3KANI2dpXLw

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Today's Action--Alexco and Tinka

According to the plan, I bought AXU with at limit order at $3.40 using 3.5% of the account.  The intraday low went as low as last summer's low at $3.27, then bounced.  The stop was at $3.26 for this position.  Lucky guess!

Initially, I was thinking I could sell this when it gets to around $4.30, but I think I will take a more conservative approach and just sell when it gets to the 18dma (if it gets there at all!).  Right now, that would represent a decent 6.8% gain.  I would be happy with that.  My guess is that there will be a move up a least that far because: (A) this level has been support + bounce for a while, (B) RSI 7 is oversold, and that has produced bounces in the past, and (C) there was a lower BB crash at the close.  I like this set-up.  My stop level would represent a 4.5% loss on the position, or 0.16% of the account.  I can live with that...

I also initiated to two 3.5% limit orders for Tinka about 30 minutes before the close.  I had been monitoring AXU mostly today, so didn't check in with Ma' Lady until later. I was happy to see a nice break below the 18dma, my cue to add the final tranche.

I wanted to add around $1.10, but that was the end of the tail, and with only 30 minutes left in the Canadian trading day, I chose to split the final 7% between the ask @ $1.12 and the bid at $1.11.  Looks like only the $1.12 filled.  I'm happy with that for now, and will sit on it for a while.  I would only add more at this point if there is a BB crash trade below the lower BB at $1.07 or less.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Tinka and Sunward--Yin and Yang

Tinka did wind up moving, and closing, a couple of cents below the 18dma today (18dma @ 1.17, close at 1.15):  right on schedule.


This type of repetition reassures to me that the patterns it has established are in tact.  Unfortunately, my bid at $1.15 went unfilled today, so I had to reinitiate it AH for tomorrow.  It's a small bid, just to try to pick up the remaining 35% of the bid at $1.15 that went unfilled in the partial from yesterday.  I'm not sure I'll get it though.  Both gold and silver showed good strength in the second half of the day, and most miners closed in the green, as well.  The dominant pattern of Tinka being a day behind the mining sector gives me a chance to test the theory again.  Since today started out down for miners, does that mean Tinka will start out down tomorrow and I'll get my bid at $1.15 filled at the open?  Or will it open higher because of the green day close?  This is an interesting question, for me, that will be answered tomorrow.  The less dominant pattern is for Tinka to move below the 18dma for a couple days, so hopefully tomorrow will be partially red, even if it closes up.  It could be a sell off, but to me it doesn't look like it's ready for an ICL-like move down to the lower BB or more.

The other miner I put a bid on today (also unfilled!) was Sunward (SWD.TO).  Sunward has been on it's way down for a while, but I continue to see the value there that made me some good money in late 2011 and the first half of 2012.  The bottom line is, their earnings are down because of capital investments.  However, the property is in a legacy location.  I first bought Sunward for around a dollar, traded it nicely into the lower 2's, then sat on a very small (700 shares) amount as it went down from $1.92 to where it is today.


I decided I was going to start buying below .75 cents if it got there, which it has.  To me, this is a "be right, sit tight" play.  I'm going to end up committing just 2% of my account to it, but the price is right.  I bought the first tranche at .72 a couple weeks ago, and put in a bid for the second on the bounce today.  Sunward is in a good position, with recent mineralizations showing good concentration, and a slight change in management, *appears* resume-wise to be a change for the better, with Gil Leathley taking over as COO.  Moreover, they are at a point where feasibility is completing, drill results are in, and production is being phased in.  From their most recent presser:  
  • Gold and copper recoveries average 75% and 86%, respectively
  • Gold recoveries at the predominantly gold-bearing Northwest Breccia Zone average 85%
  • Focus has moved to conducting engineering and economic studies
Like anything, I could end up eating a Turd Ferguson on this one, but until the momentum changes on the story, I'm happy to buy up to my predetermined percentage at these blood-in-the-streets prices.

Update:  Alexco (AXU) closed at $3.43 today.  $3.40 has been support.  I'm going for it tomorrow, and will put in a limit order for 3.5% tranche at $3.40.  If I average the differences between the tops on the daily chart, I guess the top average will be about $4.30, especially as a bounce at $3.40 would represent a higher low.  If I can get it, that would represent an approx. 26% gain.

Update 2:  AXU order filled at $3.40.  Placed stop just below last summer's low of $3.27 (at $3.26).  Right now price is sitting at $3.31, with a nice medium-length tail down to.... $3.27:)  Hopefully this is the reversal candle, and then AXU can be my new Mining Muppet friend.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Tinka Update--3-26-2013

Tinka seems to have a new range of $1.16-$1.25.  For today, I put in a barely stinky bid just below at $1.15 (a smaller 3.5% tranche).  In the past, TK has shown that it will break just below the 18dma for a day or two, and just a few cents below, with the exception of the recent ICL-like lows in mid- to late-February.  Right now, price is just bouncing off support and the 18, so I will use my bid to signal, then wait a day or two for my third and final tranche if it can break below the 18 to around $1.10-1.12.  Of course, if anything like February happens again, I will be selling other assets that aren't too far underwater in order to take the BB crash trade, as it represented an approx. 38% gain last time.

Tinka's most recent press release from today secures my bias confirmation for a while by reporting more silver-containing drill results; some sections are quite good:  http://www.tinkaresources.com/files/news/tinka_news_release_march_26_2013.pdf

In other news, SVLC looks like it's working its way down, hopefully to around the $2.15-2.20 area, where it will be a good buy.   SVM continues to hilariously bounce off the 50dma.  A fun game would be to set up an automatic buy for a put option or two at the 50dma.  Today, that would have been 1.8% on the regular stock.  I'm too lazy to research the put option price action today, but maybe it's better than 1.8% volatility, never mind open interest.  Finally, AXU continues to move down to the $3.40 range that has been good support for a while now.  If I had less invested in the garbage complex known as NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, I would definitely put money into AXU at those levels.

Update: Order at $1.15 for TK.V partially (65%) filled.  Hopefully get a move below the 18dma for the last tranche.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Tinka, SilverCrest, Silvercorp

I guessed that Tinka (TK.V) would have a narrow range day Friday, this just because it was going into a weekend and because it had come off the 70s on the RSI 7.  However, it showed good strength over the course of the day, opening flat at $1.16 and coming on strong at the end of the day to close at $1.23.  From the open, this represents a nice 6% gain. 

The slow STO is still imbedded, but has crossed over; MACD is headed the same way.  Because of the delay pattern, I guess that Monday will be the narrow range day that I guessed Friday would be:  GDX, GDXJ, SVM (see below) and others all showed hirami.  I guess in candlestick land, that's still ultimately bullish, but the fact that silver continues to eat crow and the fact that the metals are getting ripe for a move down into the DCL means that wait and see is the best policy here.  I didn't trade anything Friday.

Silvercorp (SVM) showed that it's not ready to break through the overhead resistance, and basically conformed to miners at large showing a hirami and running out of steam.
If the hirami turns out to be be bullish, i.e., if the upper BB and 50dma can be penetrated, then I would be interested in taking a small test tranche at the next DCL (which would presumably be a backtest of the breakout above resistance).

SilverCrest (SVLC), like Tinka, had a strong day Friday despite a gimp day for other miners.  This is a company I really want to be invested in, but I don't see a tradeable pattern like Tinka has been showing.  Ultimately, I see it as being similar to Alexco and Mandalay in that it's possible to identify the ranges of the cycles, and try to buy near the bottom.

For SilverCrest, I think that range will be around $2.20.  I'd like to buy there.  I told myself I would buy below $2.15 a few weeks ago, but I didn't pull the trigger when it got there.  Tinka was ripe, and I told myself to go with my gut.  It sucks right now because I have very little dry powder, still trapped in horrible NUGT and GDX/GDXJ trades that I decided to take last November.  Had I been better disciplined, and accepted the smaller losses in December, I would have been in a position to try these trades.  But Muppets are stubborn, and I have convinced myself that I will be selling my NUGT shares at $30 for some time now:)   My guess is that SVLC will move down Monday about the same amount it moved up on Friday, back to around the $2.50-2.53 level.  Like Tinka, the 70 on the RSI 7 has been signaling tops for a while. 

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Silvercorp (SVM)

About a week ago, Silvercorp announced (http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/news/news-release-details/2013/Silvercorp-Provides-Update-Regarding-Defamation-Case-and-Class-Action/default.aspx) that it was dropping its defamation lawsuit against alfredlittle.com for reports that intensified a wave of selling of the stock after the silver smackdown of 5/11.  I remember the entertainment of reading the yahoo message boards for SVM back then, trying to figure out who had the real info, who were trolls, bots, alfredlittles and SVM shareholders--even Wynter Benton made an appearance.  I had sold my SVM for a loss already, but the relatively low price seemed tempting.  But it just kept going down.  Silvercorp hosted a shareholder event around that time to meet with investors and discuss details of the story.  A good friend of mine went up to Vancouver to see if his BS alarm would go off, but he said not even close.  He talked directly with legal counsel for SVM and reported that (A) his BS meter didn't go off, and (B) it seemed like the guy was even a little suspicious of him!  So, while we didn't buy the alfredlittle.com story about spies analyzing some "ore" that fell off the trucks in China, you couldn't argue with price.

Having said that, I would have guessed that SVM's decision to drop the case, which to me, as an onlooker and investor, seemed credible, would have lowered confidence even further:  "They must be dropping it because they know they have no case."  However, after an initial two day drop following the announcement, SVM has shown good momentum to the upside, with what look like higher highs and higher lows:


It's been a long time since SVM has tagged the 70 on the RSI 7 or the upper BB.  To me, this is an interesting turn of events.  I have to admit that the seeds of doubt planted by alfredlittle are still there, but, again, you can't argue with price, no matter the direction.  Maybe I'll be interested during the next DCL on this one if it can manage a breach of the 50dma.

Mining Muppet Circa 1908

I noticed that if you don't have a widescreen monitor, you can't really see the background image.  Which is sort of the whole point. So here's the original:


Tinka Resources (TK.V) -- 3/20/2013

Tinka (TK.V) closed at a new high today, and continues to show strong action in a relatively weak mining sector.  However, Tinka has an interesting attribute I've noticed:  it tends to lag a day behind the miners in general.  There are exceptions to this, of course, but I've been able to trade this rule successfully.  Tinka also has been showing a nice propensity to stick to ranges once it establishes them.  I've noticed these are often in $.05-.10 intervals, followed by back tests, then up again.  Additionally, it seems like sustained moves are capped by the 7-day RSI getting oversold (see below).


Because today was a new high, because today was a down day for miners generally, and because it corresponded to the RSI 7 becoming oversold, I sold today at $1.23 after accumulating at $1.08 and 1.15.  Stochastics are still imbedded, and the MACD looks good as well; however, for me that wasn't enough to not take profits.  I will look to reenter around the $1.15 range again, or if it can close against the upper BB, I will assume it is going to ride the band for a few days up, as has tended to do.

Tinka reminds me a lot of Orko Silver.  I think it will continue to do well up until $1.50, at which point I guess a new batch of drill results will be needed before the resource enthusiasm returns to push it up towards $2.00. 

Alexco

Another miner I keep looking at is Alexco (AXU).  I keep looking at it because it seems like it also has a nice tradeable range going on right now.  Below $3.50, there is good support and has been for almost a year now.  It would be nice to see it get there again.  The 50, 200, and upper BB are all providing overhead resistance, but it wasn't an issue a month and a half ago, although it does appear to be the profit-taking catalyst for the most recent top earlier this month.  I haven't bought it yet, but I'm going to try this time if it can tag $3.50.


As for Alexco's fundamentals, the company is in Canada and claim to be Canada's only primary silver producer.  Their resources look good (http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/keno_hill.asp?ReportID=567444), more indicated than inferred.  I sort of see their weakness being the same as Silver Wheaton's, i.e., they will catch a sustained bid when silver does.  Until then, I'll monitor the $3.50 level and look out for more good news, such as their recent press releases about the Birmingham and Flame & Moth sites:  http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/news.asp?daterange=2013/01/01...2013/12/31  Overall, I still like this company, especially in the current (cheap) environment for the miners.

Holding Pattern

Looks like the patterns hold, low on the day at $1.17.


RSI 7 has come back nicely.  Will see how this goes into the close, but since miners in general are up today, I think I'll put in a bid, this time at $1.16.  Might not get filled, but that's what I'm willing to offer.

Edit:  The order at $1.16 filled.  It was a 5% tranche.  I would buy more just below the middle BB, at $1.12, which is where I will set a bid tomorrow morning.  If I had to guess, I would imagine a narrow range day tomorrow.