Today's Action--Alexco and Tinka

According to the plan, I bought AXU with at limit order at $3.40 using 3.5% of the account.  The intraday low went as low as last summer's low at $3.27, then bounced.  The stop was at $3.26 for this position.  Lucky guess!

Initially, I was thinking I could sell this when it gets to around $4.30, but I think I will take a more conservative approach and just sell when it gets to the 18dma (if it gets there at all!).  Right now, that would represent a decent 6.8% gain.  I would be happy with that.  My guess is that there will be a move up a least that far because: (A) this level has been support + bounce for a while, (B) RSI 7 is oversold, and that has produced bounces in the past, and (C) there was a lower BB crash at the close.  I like this set-up.  My stop level would represent a 4.5% loss on the position, or 0.16% of the account.  I can live with that...

I also initiated to two 3.5% limit orders for Tinka about 30 minutes before the close.  I had been monitoring AXU mostly today, so didn't check in with Ma' Lady until later. I was happy to see a nice break below the 18dma, my cue to add the final tranche.

I wanted to add around $1.10, but that was the end of the tail, and with only 30 minutes left in the Canadian trading day, I chose to split the final 7% between the ask @ $1.12 and the bid at $1.11.  Looks like only the $1.12 filled.  I'm happy with that for now, and will sit on it for a while.  I would only add more at this point if there is a BB crash trade below the lower BB at $1.07 or less.

Tinka and Sunward--Yin and Yang

Tinka did wind up moving, and closing, a couple of cents below the 18dma today (18dma @ 1.17, close at 1.15):  right on schedule.

This type of repetition reassures to me that the patterns it has established are in tact.  Unfortunately, my bid at $1.15 went unfilled today, so I had to reinitiate it AH for tomorrow.  It's a small bid, just to try to pick up the remaining 35% of the bid at $1.15 that went unfilled in the partial from yesterday.  I'm not sure I'll get it though.  Both gold and silver showed good strength in the second half of the day, and most miners closed in the green, as well.  The dominant pattern of Tinka being a day behind the mining sector gives me a chance to test the theory again.  Since today started out down for miners, does that mean Tinka will start out down tomorrow and I'll get my bid at $1.15 filled at the open?  Or will it open higher because of the green day close?  This is an interesting question, for me, that will be answered tomorrow.  The less dominant pattern is for Tinka to move below the 18dma for a couple days, so hopefully tomorrow will be partially red, even if it closes up.  It could be a sell off, but to me it doesn't look like it's ready for an ICL-like move down to the lower BB or more.

The other miner I put a bid on today (also unfilled!) was Sunward (SWD.TO).  Sunward has been on it's way down for a while, but I continue to see the value there that made me some good money in late 2011 and the first half of 2012.  The bottom line is, their earnings are down because of capital investments.  However, the property is in a legacy location.  I first bought Sunward for around a dollar, traded it nicely into the lower 2's, then sat on a very small (700 shares) amount as it went down from $1.92 to where it is today.

I decided I was going to start buying below .75 cents if it got there, which it has.  To me, this is a "be right, sit tight" play.  I'm going to end up committing just 2% of my account to it, but the price is right.  I bought the first tranche at .72 a couple weeks ago, and put in a bid for the second on the bounce today.  Sunward is in a good position, with recent mineralizations showing good concentration, and a slight change in management, *appears* resume-wise to be a change for the better, with Gil Leathley taking over as COO.  Moreover, they are at a point where feasibility is completing, drill results are in, and production is being phased in.  From their most recent presser:  

• Gold and copper recoveries average 75% and 86%, respectively
• Gold recoveries at the predominantly gold-bearing Northwest Breccia Zone average 85%
• Focus has moved to conducting engineering and economic studies

Like anything, I could end up eating a Turd Ferguson on this one, but until the momentum changes on the story, I'm happy to buy up to my predetermined percentage at these blood-in-the-streets prices.

Update:  Alexco (AXU) closed at $3.43 today.  $3.40 has been support.  I'm going for it tomorrow, and will put in a limit order for 3.5% tranche at $3.40.  If I average the differences between the tops on the daily chart, I guess the top average will be about $4.30, especially as a bounce at $3.40 would represent a higher low.  If I can get it, that would represent an approx. 26% gain.

Update 2:  AXU order filled at $3.40.  Placed stop just below last summer's low of $3.27 (at $3.26).  Right now price is sitting at $3.31, with a nice medium-length tail down to.... $3.27:)  Hopefully this is the reversal candle, and then AXU can be my new Mining Muppet friend.

Tinka Update--3-26-2013

Tinka seems to have a new range of $1.16-$1.25.  For today, I put in a barely stinky bid just below at $1.15 (a smaller 3.5% tranche).  In the past, TK has shown that it will break just below the 18dma for a day or two, and just a few cents below, with the exception of the recent ICL-like lows in mid- to late-February.  Right now, price is just bouncing off support and the 18, so I will use my bid to signal, then wait a day or two for my third and final tranche if it can break below the 18 to around $1.10-1.12.  Of course, if anything like February happens again, I will be selling other assets that aren't too far underwater in order to take the BB crash trade, as it represented an approx. 38% gain last time.

Tinka's most recent press release from today secures my bias confirmation for a while by reporting more silver-containing drill results; some sections are quite good:  http://www.tinkaresources.com/files/news/tinka_news_release_march_26_2013.pdf

In other news, SVLC looks like it's working its way down, hopefully to around the $2.15-2.20 area, where it will be a good buy.   SVM continues to hilariously bounce off the 50dma.  A fun game would be to set up an automatic buy for a put option or two at the 50dma.  Today, that would have been 1.8% on the regular stock.  I'm too lazy to research the put option price action today, but maybe it's better than 1.8% volatility, never mind open interest.  Finally, AXU continues to move down to the $3.40 range that has been good support for a while now.  If I had less invested in the garbage complex known as NUGT, GDX, GDXJ, I would definitely put money into AXU at those levels.

Update: Order at $1.15 for TK.V partially (65%) filled.  Hopefully get a move below the 18dma for the last tranche.

Tinka, SilverCrest, Silvercorp

I guessed that Tinka (TK.V) would have a narrow range day Friday, this just because it was going into a weekend and because it had come off the 70s on the RSI 7.  However, it showed good strength over the course of the day, opening flat at $1.16 and coming on strong at the end of the day to close at $1.23.  From the open, this represents a nice 6% gain. 

The slow STO is still imbedded, but has crossed over; MACD is headed the same way.  Because of the delay pattern, I guess that Monday will be the narrow range day that I guessed Friday would be:  GDX, GDXJ, SVM (see below) and others all showed hirami.  I guess in candlestick land, that's still ultimately bullish, but the fact that silver continues to eat crow and the fact that the metals are getting ripe for a move down into the DCL means that wait and see is the best policy here.  I didn't trade anything Friday.

Silvercorp (SVM) showed that it's not ready to break through the overhead resistance, and basically conformed to miners at large showing a hirami and running out of steam.

If the hirami turns out to be be bullish, i.e., if the upper BB and 50dma can be penetrated, then I would be interested in taking a small test tranche at the next DCL (which would presumably be a backtest of the breakout above resistance).

SilverCrest (SVLC), like Tinka, had a strong day Friday despite a gimp day for other miners.  This is a company I really want to be invested in, but I don't see a tradeable pattern like Tinka has been showing.  Ultimately, I see it as being similar to Alexco and Mandalay in that it's possible to identify the ranges of the cycles, and try to buy near the bottom.

For SilverCrest, I think that range will be around $2.20.  I'd like to buy there.  I told myself I would buy below $2.15 a few weeks ago, but I didn't pull the trigger when it got there.  Tinka was ripe, and I told myself to go with my gut.  It sucks right now because I have very little dry powder, still trapped in horrible NUGT and GDX/GDXJ trades that I decided to take last November.  Had I been better disciplined, and accepted the smaller losses in December, I would have been in a position to try these trades.  But Muppets are stubborn, and I have convinced myself that I will be selling my NUGT shares at $30 for some time now:)   My guess is that SVLC will move down Monday about the same amount it moved up on Friday, back to around the $2.50-2.53 level.  Like Tinka, the 70 on the RSI 7 has been signaling tops for a while. 

Silvercorp (SVM)

About a week ago, Silvercorp announced (http://www.silvercorpmetals.com/news/news-release-details/2013/Silvercorp-Provides-Update-Regarding-Defamation-Case-and-Class-Action/default.aspx) that it was dropping its defamation lawsuit against alfredlittle.com for reports that intensified a wave of selling of the stock after the silver smackdown of 5/11.  I remember the entertainment of reading the yahoo message boards for SVM back then, trying to figure out who had the real info, who were trolls, bots, alfredlittles and SVM shareholders--even Wynter Benton made an appearance.  I had sold my SVM for a loss already, but the relatively low price seemed tempting.  But it just kept going down.  Silvercorp hosted a shareholder event around that time to meet with investors and discuss details of the story.  A good friend of mine went up to Vancouver to see if his BS alarm would go off, but he said not even close.  He talked directly with legal counsel for SVM and reported that (A) his BS meter didn't go off, and (B) it seemed like the guy was even a little suspicious of him!  So, while we didn't buy the alfredlittle.com story about spies analyzing some "ore" that fell off the trucks in China, you couldn't argue with price.

Having said that, I would have guessed that SVM's decision to drop the case, which to me, as an onlooker and investor, seemed credible, would have lowered confidence even further:  "They must be dropping it because they know they have no case."  However, after an initial two day drop following the announcement, SVM has shown good momentum to the upside, with what look like higher highs and higher lows:

It's been a long time since SVM has tagged the 70 on the RSI 7 or the upper BB.  To me, this is an interesting turn of events.  I have to admit that the seeds of doubt planted by alfredlittle are still there, but, again, you can't argue with price, no matter the direction.  Maybe I'll be interested during the next DCL on this one if it can manage a breach of the 50dma.

Mining Muppet Circa 1908

I noticed that if you don't have a widescreen monitor, you can't really see the background image.  Which is sort of the whole point. So here's the original:

Tinka Resources (TK.V) -- 3/20/2013

Tinka (TK.V) closed at a new high today, and continues to show strong action in a relatively weak mining sector.  However, Tinka has an interesting attribute I've noticed:  it tends to lag a day behind the miners in general.  There are exceptions to this, of course, but I've been able to trade this rule successfully.  Tinka also has been showing a nice propensity to stick to ranges once it establishes them.  I've noticed these are often in $.05-.10 intervals, followed by back tests, then up again.  Additionally, it seems like sustained moves are capped by the 7-day RSI getting oversold (see below).

Because today was a new high, because today was a down day for miners generally, and because it corresponded to the RSI 7 becoming oversold, I sold today at $1.23 after accumulating at $1.08 and 1.15.  Stochastics are still imbedded, and the MACD looks good as well; however, for me that wasn't enough to not take profits.  I will look to reenter around the $1.15 range again, or if it can close against the upper BB, I will assume it is going to ride the band for a few days up, as has tended to do.

Tinka reminds me a lot of Orko Silver.  I think it will continue to do well up until $1.50, at which point I guess a new batch of drill results will be needed before the resource enthusiasm returns to push it up towards $2.00. 

Alexco

Another miner I keep looking at is Alexco (AXU).  I keep looking at it because it seems like it also has a nice tradeable range going on right now.  Below $3.50, there is good support and has been for almost a year now.  It would be nice to see it get there again.  The 50, 200, and upper BB are all providing overhead resistance, but it wasn't an issue a month and a half ago, although it does appear to be the profit-taking catalyst for the most recent top earlier this month.  I haven't bought it yet, but I'm going to try this time if it can tag $3.50.

As for Alexco's fundamentals, the company is in Canada and claim to be Canada's only primary silver producer.  Their resources look good (http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/keno_hill.asp?ReportID=567444), more indicated than inferred.  I sort of see their weakness being the same as Silver Wheaton's, i.e., they will catch a sustained bid when silver does.  Until then, I'll monitor the $3.50 level and look out for more good news, such as their recent press releases about the Birmingham and Flame & Moth sites:  http://www.alexcoresource.com/s/news.asp?daterange=2013/01/01...2013/12/31  Overall, I still like this company, especially in the current (cheap) environment for the miners.

Holding Pattern

Looks like the patterns hold, low on the day at $1.17.

RSI 7 has come back nicely.  Will see how this goes into the close, but since miners in general are up today, I think I'll put in a bid, this time at $1.16.  Might not get filled, but that's what I'm willing to offer.

Edit:  The order at $1.16 filled.  It was a 5% tranche.  I would buy more just below the middle BB, at $1.12, which is where I will set a bid tomorrow morning.  If I had to guess, I would imagine a narrow range day tomorrow.