Update on Yesterday's Post

The swings happened today.  I bought initial stakes in both AG and EXK, 7% each.  Strength tomorrow (a break of the trend line) I will add UGL 15%. 

In more interesting news, I'm wondering about Silvercorp again.  Gone are the days of the mysterious Wynter Benton, but I'll likely stay away.  Too much funny business.  Still, I'm going to keep my eye on them.  There is an allure there!  Check this out:  Silvercorp Valuation Outlook

Tracked Miners Update

Here's an update of the miners I've been tracking.  Only a couple are up from May, and most are down since September.  Cycle timing-wise, a buy opportunity is coming up.  The timing hasn't worked out predictably for all of the juniors, SilverCrest being the exception. 

Silver Wheaton and First Majestic will be two of my pics to buy when this final intermediate decline shows a swing.  Two tranches:  one on the daily swing, a second on a weekly swing.  I will also buy Endeavor (EXK) and a leveraged metal (UGL or AGQ). 

You can see from First Majestic's daily chart above that most of the conditions from a technical perspective are satisfied for exhaustion selling to be close: RSI 7, MACD, and SlowStochs are all showing oversold, with the SlowStoch embedded for the last two and a half weeks.  A breakdown from the lower BB at $9.44 could have this thing selling all the way down to $8.85 range, so Monday's behavior will be important to watch--I would not buy unless there is a swing into the close. Stops would be at the swing.  Breakouts have been convincingly through the 10dma, and retests per se haven't really occurred, as closes back below the 10dma have signaled further and enduring declines.  Cycles-wise, the three guys I trust are all saying we're due--including my favorite free one here:  Beneath the Surface

 The weekly chart for First Majestic shows similar conditions over the longer term--momentum indicators are oversold, although the RSI isn't as low as can be typical for intermediate cycle lows.  However, I've learned that, if this is the first intermediate cycle out of a yearly cycle low (last June), then momentum indicators may not be severely oversold when the second intermediate cycle begins.  The key is to watch for a weekly swing.  In this case, that would be a close above $10.50.  Sometimes there will be a narrow weekly range, which "eases the parameters" for the weekly swing to be met the following week.  I will watch for both.

Picks Update from May 20th Post

Just a quick post of updates to the May 20th "Picks" post.  Some good, some bad.  I continue to like Tinka, despite the performance since May!

Obviously, yesterday was a nice day to hold miners.  Some are saying the short squeeze is "on" and now it's just time to hold.  I agree, but was only able to put half my money where my mouth is, selling both NUGT and half AGQ positions while they were green. 

Selling and Buying

Today I sold my First Majestic (FR.TO), a 7% stake of my portfolio, which takes my total First Majestic down to zero.  I'll buy more at next cycle low, but I might split the allocation with Endeavor, since it outperformed.  I was a little worried about FR because it was both rejected by the 10dma and failed to move up through volume price support; it could go down to $13.50s, which about where I originally bought it ($13.65) back on 8/12. 

I also bought a little more Tinka toward the close today.  Sort of silly to see this breakdown, but as this is one I want to own long term, I didn't hesitate to add as it broke down below it's old lower bound of .68 to .65.  This was a sell the news-type fluctuation, I think, as Tinka just posted news today, reflecting more silver-laden drill results.  Go figure:)  Tinka Drill Results--NEWS

Buying and Selling

Sold positions from August 8 today, including SLW, AGQ, and GDX.  I also *bought* more Tinka today at .69.  I will be looking to reload after a correction, and will post when I do.  Endeavor has been doing GREAT, but I'm not sure if it will have the most gas left. 

Happy trading! 

Leaders Today

Here is a quick list of the leaders I'm watching:  First Majestic, Endeavor, PanAm, Silvercorp, Silver Wheaton; and for juniors, Scorpio and Alexco are doing well.  Stops have been moved up on yesterdays large positions in GDX, AGQ, and SLW, so unless there's some major premarket action, should profit at least 6% on the miner positions.  Tinka did move up today, but only to .74, so I could not excersise my exit target of .75.  SantaCruz is down slightly, but this is a move down from the upper BB (10,1.9) about halfway to the 10dma.  Not worried (yet).

Buying Today

Like many other PM watchers, I was a buyer today.  I bought SLW, TK.V, AGQ, SCZ.V, and GDX.  I have stops on the larger positions (SLW, AGQ, GDX) but not on the juniors.  Tinka seems to have reestablished it's pattern of lagging a day behind the mining sector.  Tomorrow will test this. I bought at .69, and will sell this tranche when (if?) TK gets back to .75, which would represent an 8.7% profit.  Fine by me. 

SLW looked glorious today: