Sunday, November 24, 2013

Tracked Miners Update

Here's an update of the miners I've been tracking.  Only a couple are up from May, and most are down since September.  Cycle timing-wise, a buy opportunity is coming up.  The timing hasn't worked out predictably for all of the juniors, SilverCrest being the exception. 

Silver Wheaton and First Majestic will be two of my pics to buy when this final intermediate decline shows a swing.  Two tranches:  one on the daily swing, a second on a weekly swing.  I will also buy Endeavor (EXK) and a leveraged metal (UGL or AGQ). 

You can see from First Majestic's daily chart above that most of the conditions from a technical perspective are satisfied for exhaustion selling to be close: RSI 7, MACD, and SlowStochs are all showing oversold, with the SlowStoch embedded for the last two and a half weeks.  A breakdown from the lower BB at $9.44 could have this thing selling all the way down to $8.85 range, so Monday's behavior will be important to watch--I would not buy unless there is a swing into the close. Stops would be at the swing.  Breakouts have been convincingly through the 10dma, and retests per se haven't really occurred, as closes back below the 10dma have signaled further and enduring declines.  Cycles-wise, the three guys I trust are all saying we're due--including my favorite free one here:  Beneath the Surface

 The weekly chart for First Majestic shows similar conditions over the longer term--momentum indicators are oversold, although the RSI isn't as low as can be typical for intermediate cycle lows.  However, I've learned that, if this is the first intermediate cycle out of a yearly cycle low (last June), then momentum indicators may not be severely oversold when the second intermediate cycle begins.  The key is to watch for a weekly swing.  In this case, that would be a close above $10.50.  Sometimes there will be a narrow weekly range, which "eases the parameters" for the weekly swing to be met the following week.  I will watch for both.

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