Still here, still sober.

Tinka has been range-bound for the last week, basically oscillating between .86-.91.  Buying the .86 and selling here gives you almost 6%.  I'm putting an order for this tomorrow, a stinker, at .85.  We'll see if it works.

First Majestic, Silver Wheaton, Silvercorp, SilverCrest... all cheap. Alexco looks crazy cheap on the heels the silver/gold smash last week--in retrospect, I think Alexco's price breaking down from it's range was the tell.  My bias and the pro-cyclicality of thought assumed that the range would continue.  Thank god for stops... but... sill massively oversold. From this month's press release:  "Accordingly, as we progress through the second and third quarters we will be sequencing back into higher grade areas of the mine. We continue to expect to produce approximately 1.9 to 2.1 million ounces from the Bellekeno mine in 2013."  I think I'm going to start back in at these levels.  While staying away from GDX, GDXJ, NUGT from now on.

In other news, Netflix is up 25% in AH.  Crazy times.  Miners are undervalued and hated, while virtual happiness streams to 25% gains.  Welcome to the Matrix!

95% Trimmed

Sold half of the Tinka at 0.91, a little lower than planned.  Today is brutal.  I have a sell order in for FR, too.  I'm not going to sell SWD at this point.  This is not how most investors invisioned it, right?  Time to practice some Zen.  All I have to say is that I'm glad I'm only 37 and I didn't have that much to risk in the first place.  If I were retired, or on fixed income, and caught in this, it would be a different outlook, I'm sure.  For now, I just feel a case of the coulda woulda shouldas.... Back to the drawing board.

Another opportunity will present itself.  To learn from mistakes is where the real pride will come from.

Mining Muppet... signing off.

Mining Insanity

As if holding GDX and NUGT over the last 6 months weren't crazy enough... Now production the US's second largest silver mine and the world's largest copper mine has just imploded via landslide:

LOOK OUT BELOW -10% OF U.S. SILVER SUPPLY JUST SLID AWAY 

Predictions on how this will impact the PM and mining sectors?  The blogosphere holds that the selling will continue.  We'll find out starting in 3 minutes when the Asian markets open.

Edit:  Selling Friday sucked, but I can say now that I'm glad I sold what I did, and wished I had sold more.  This takedown is EPIC.  Here's a little tinfoil, which should be of a little comfort if you're like me:  Assault on Gold

Tapping Out

Back on Monday, I asked the question on Twitter "why is Eric Sprott unloading PSLV shares?"  I mean, the guy and his team advertise as perma-bulls on KWN.  Why is Sprott Selling PSLV?  Now I guess we know why...

I tapped out on some old positions (from back in October 2012) today, for big losses.  The move below 1523 meant the prior low on the weekly chart established in December 2011 had been violated.  For me, that was time to eat my losses.  And they were big.  I closed GDX and GDXJ positions from then, a First Majestic position from November just after the election, and AGQ and UGL positions from February.  When all was said and done, 25% of my account was toast.  Not an easy pill to swallow, but in the case of this washout, the momentum was too much for this Muppet.  

What do I still have?  Only my Canadian account remains intact, which includes Tinka, Sunward, First Majestic (FR--my oldest position from March 2012 that I bought for what at the time was a screaming deal at $16).  In my long term account, I still have TGLDX (Toqueville Gold Fund) and some bonds (DLTNX).  Toqueville seems to have repositioned some of their portfolio with shorts, as I've seen them up on down days.  Bonds are doing fine.

Tinka is in jeopardy of getting sold for a loss here, too, unfortunately.  I was looking to sell 50% today if the close looked like it would be below .94--it closed at .96.  I will keep the same strategy Monday, and will exit the entire position should it close below the last cycle low at .83.  These would represent 16% and 26% losses on the position, respectively. 

Should that happen, this blog will be renamed "The Drinking Muppet," and content will be adjusted accordingly.

Trades and News

I'll start off with AXU.  For the second time, I was stopped out of this trade, this time at $2.56--yesterday's low at $2.51 looks now like it marks the bottom:  there was a swing low--WAY LOW--today.  In retrospect, it looks like a good time to take the trade on the swing... but I didn't do it.  Twice was enough. If it can close above the 18 dma, maybe I'll think about it.  Ultimately, this is one I want to own, and at these prices, it seems like a good value play.  I'm just bitter now!  Here's the chart:

Technically, there's not too much of a better set up if you like the value and fundamentals of a company.  I just got suspicious that something is going on behind the scenes even though I like the *published* story of Alexco.  I'll probably buy back in a day or two--I'll post that trade.

What I did add today is more Tinka.  I couldn't resist the low prices and my Muppet brain told me "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  My plan was to get invested into Tinka up to 15% of my account.  With today's addition at $1.02, I now have an average entry price of $1.12 and am invested 26%.  Yikes!  Getting down into the .90s seems to have triggered some stops AND some limit orders.  The close was at $1.03, which looks like a good reversal to me (longish tail).

The trend with Tinka has been to lag a day behind the mining sector, which had a good day today. That, coupled with (A) the turn on the SloStoch, (B) the dip into RSI 7--which has signaled turns thus far on the daily and for the last 1.5 years, and (C) large support at .97-.98 (thanks for the lesson, Mr. M), gave me the courage to break from my plan and add a little more.  I will be very cautious with this overage.

In other news:

The chart for a larger miner, Allied Nevada (ANV) looks strong today, and looks like the bottom is in (thanks to Alex at BBT for pointing that one out).

First Majestic (AG) has good news from their Del Toro mine:  Del Toro Silver Mine Flotation Circuit Deemed Commercial

SilverCrest (SVLC) continues to expand one of it's deposits: SilverCrest Deposits Expanded

Plus interesting results from Aurcana (AUN), a small miner that I like, but haven't seen a set up to buy yet, especially given the action the last couple days.  It's one to keep on the radar, though:  Larger, more complex mineralization at Shafter

In silly news, I'm sure most of you saw the chart for FSLR.  If you've not yet seen it, it rivals the NFLX chart from the day after their earnings last time.  It's a (solar) rocket!

Finally, Kyle Bass is perplexed at gold's low price.  A good watch: Kyle Bass: 'I'm perplexed'

Alexco, Tinka, and Sunward Updates

Today, I used proceeds for yesterday's humiliating NUGT liquidation to bid Tinka at $1.04 and buy back Alexco at $2.62, but it was again a small opening tranche position.  Unfortunately, only one-quarter of the Tinka bid was filled.  Although I never bought any more Sunward (SWD), it was up 22% today.  Nice to see some green.

I'm really starting to get intrigued by Alexco.  I see it as a more credible Silvercorp, in the sense that it is one of a handful of primary silver producers in the world, and someone is shorting or selling the crap out of it despite results.  Someone doesn't want it "looking good."  That's the tinfoil hat talking, I know, but I can't help to wonder what non-news would drive the price down in spite of good results.

Update 4/5/13:  Put a stop on AXU after the close at the days low of $2.56.

Failure, Disappointment--Lessons Learned

Guess what?  I was 20/20 trading Tinka last year.  This year so far, I'm 11/14.  It's easy when you just have to BTFD.  However, all that profit was equalized today as I closed a NUGT position I entered around $12 for a 64% loss.  It sucks.  Tinka is a stock I didn't "follow" anyone into trade-wise.  The NUGT position was the Muppet in me listening to others that thought it was perfect for making money.  Of course, those same others said to set stops, take a smaller position, etc., but I heard what I wanted to, breaking my rule of no leverage, and breaking my rule of not following the crowd.  Muppet indeed....

Tinka is at $1.12 today.  My average position entry is at $1.14, so hopefully I can get back on track once this DCL is in. 

*bort*

Tinka Order

Filled today at $1.08, a small order.  Last of the bunch.  Gold's daily cycle low should be coming up soon, so I don't predict the price will go down that much.

The Alexco trade from last week didn't work out, as I used a stop at $3.26 on that one, which was hit.  Alexco has had good news coming out recently as well.   I think I'm going to wait on a swing low and just repurchase the shares I was stopped out on at a lower price.  I still like their story. 

No charts for today. 

The April Fool: Mining Muppet

Well, I blew it today--the April Fools joke is on me.  My plan after the third tranche was to hold UNLESS THERE WAS A BB CRASH using Ira E's 18, 1.9 BB setting.  We got it today.  I noticed right before class started, and figured I'd take the trade at break.  When I noticed, price of TK.V was down to $1.08; it would go as low as $1.07.  However, 90 minutes later, it's up for the day!  Back to $1.15.

Granted, I was only going to take another 3.5%.  But still, to get that reversal, had I followed my plan and struck while the iron was hot, it would have been a nice 6.5% gain in just one trading day.  Oh well, lesson learned.  You snooze, you lose, Muppet.  However, since miners were generally down today, I'll put in a bid at the open for what I lost out on today, 3.5% at $1.08.  I doubt I'll get it, but no harm in trying to rectify my error.

Check out these other April Fools' Muppet outtakes:  http://youtu.be/3KANI2dpXLw