Well, Mining Muppet celebrates a year of sporadic updates, exuberance, and capitulation next week. In the meantime, I'm posting the "Muppet Picks" from about 8 months ago. Sunward continues to disappoint, and Tinka is currently in an interesting channel. SilverCrest is the star of the group. The only one I currently own is SantaCruz.
Here's an update of the Muppet Picks that I bought last May. Tinka is the biggest disappointment--but at the time, it was the junior that had made me the most money, it was a winner all of 2012 for me. It still makes up a decent chunk of my core, and I haven't trimmed since the smack-down last April. Recent additions, that I won't be tracking (just because I haven't decided if they're trades or "core" yet) include Golden Minerals (AUMN), Quest Rare Minerals (QRM), First Majestic, US version (AG), and Sandstorm Gold (SAND). AUMN and SAND have been impressive. Wished I had bought EXK, but it was weak early (just a lagger, it turned out), so I missed out. I also have some GDXJ, which is just a momentum trade. I also have to point out, that although I bought SWD.TO at $0.31, I still have some that I bought back at $1.12. I wish I had sold--seems like the company is not much more than a shell now, although the website still looks good, and they had good drill results as recently as September--no real reason to sell now.
The swings happened today. I bought initial stakes in both AG and EXK, 7% each. Strength tomorrow (a break of the trend line) I will add UGL 15%.
In more interesting news, I'm wondering about Silvercorp again. Gone are the days of the mysterious Wynter Benton, but I'll likely stay away. Too much funny business. Still, I'm going to keep my eye on them. There is an allure there! Check this out: Silvercorp Valuation Outlook
Here's an update of the miners I've been tracking. Only a couple are up from May, and most are down since September. Cycle timing-wise, a buy opportunity is coming up. The timing hasn't worked out predictably for all of the juniors, SilverCrest being the exception.
Silver Wheaton and First Majestic will be two of my pics to buy when this final intermediate decline shows a swing. Two tranches: one on the daily swing, a second on a weekly swing. I will also buy Endeavor (EXK) and a leveraged metal (UGL or AGQ).
You can see from First Majestic's daily chart above that most of the conditions from a technical perspective are satisfied for exhaustion selling to be close: RSI 7, MACD, and SlowStochs are all showing oversold, with the SlowStoch embedded for the last two and a half weeks. A breakdown from the lower BB at $9.44 could have this thing selling all the way down to $8.85 range, so Monday's behavior will be important to watch--I would not buy unless there is a swing into the close. Stops would be at the swing. Breakouts have been convincingly through the 10dma, and retests per se haven't really occurred, as closes back below the 10dma have signaled further and enduring declines. Cycles-wise, the three guys I trust are all saying we're due--including my favorite free one here: Beneath the Surface
The weekly chart for First Majestic shows similar conditions over the longer term--momentum indicators are oversold, although the RSI isn't as low as can be typical for intermediate cycle lows. However, I've learned that, if this is the first intermediate cycle out of a yearly cycle low (last June), then momentum indicators may not be severely oversold when the second intermediate cycle begins. The key is to watch for a weekly swing. In this case, that would be a close above $10.50. Sometimes there will be a narrow weekly range, which "eases the parameters" for the weekly swing to be met the following week. I will watch for both.
Just a quick post of updates to the May 20th "Picks" post. Some good, some bad. I continue to like Tinka, despite the performance since May!
Obviously, yesterday was a nice day to hold miners. Some are saying the short squeeze is "on" and now it's just time to hold. I agree, but was only able to put half my money where my mouth is, selling both NUGT and half AGQ positions while they were green.
Today I sold my First Majestic (FR.TO), a 7% stake of my portfolio, which takes my total First Majestic down to zero. I'll buy more at next cycle low, but I might split the allocation with Endeavor, since it outperformed. I was a little worried about FR because it was both rejected by the 10dma and failed to move up through volume price support; it could go down to $13.50s, which about where I originally bought it ($13.65) back on 8/12.
I also bought a little more Tinka toward the close today. Sort of silly to see this breakdown, but as this is one I want to own long term, I didn't hesitate to add as it broke down below it's old lower bound of .68 to .65. This was a sell the news-type fluctuation, I think, as Tinka just posted news today, reflecting more silver-laden drill results. Go figure:) Tinka Drill Results--NEWS