Weak Sauce

Taking profits here on OLE and SCZ.  I'll leave the Tinka position on since the range feels more established.  Weak sauce here from the little miners.  Plus, gold just broke down some more, and the dollar looks to me primed for a bounce.  I'm also selling a UGL position from a couple weeks ago for a small gain--basically enough for some chicken teriyaki for lunch! LOL.

Adding Some

I added to positions today in TK, SCZ, and OLE, which looks good on the daily chart going into the close, while the weekly had shown a swing and the MACD has turned up.  Small position with this setup.  Check it out: 

Muppet Miners--Price update

Just wanted to post an update of the spreadsheet this week from the miners I've been watching.  The big winner is First Majestic, which continues to have massive output, and a gain of 32% in two months since the spreadsheet was originally posted.  The big loser is Alexco, which has had to implement cost-saving measures as the metal prices have dropped. 

I'm going to be adding a few more miners to the tracking sheet, including SantaCruz (SCZ) and Gold One (GDO).  Other smaller ones to watch include KOR, ORG, OLE, ORV, RPM, SSP, and USA.

Tinka closed above the 10dma with no upper tail on the candle, so that looks initially positive.  However, this isn't confirmed by either strength on the weekly chart or price support from the underlying metal (silver). 

The only trade I've made in a while was a few USO puts a few weeks ago.  Those didn't work out as oil seems to have caught a speculative bid, and continues to climb.  Right now, waiting to see how oil responds to being overbought and how miners respond relative to their PMs.  Long term, though, I'm excited about these smaller miners, as cost saving requirements are forcing management to take a more serious view of spending and also of borrowing.  Hopefully, not too many are hedging in order to make this happen... 

For Whom the Tinka Bell Tolls...

Last time I checked in on June 3, I wrote: "I will add back the 2% if there's either (a) a successful retest of the 200dma, or if (b) it's going to close above the 50dma."  Neither of those criteria materialized, however, in spite of some strength from gold in the interceding weeks. As you can see in the chart below, after being rejected by the 200dma, the lower BB was tested, and then .70 became the new floor.  Friday saw an almost 10cent range, closing strong with a long lower tail at .79, just above the middle BB, which in my preferred setting uses Ira E's 18-day average of closes.  The bar has got a lot lower since the June 3 post, where the 50dma was then above the 200, it is now below it. Overhead resistance next week should be at .83, then .86, then .88. Friday showed strength for the miners in general, though, so Monday will probably be weak, especially if the metals continue lower (and double-especially after the CME 25% margin hike sinks in).  Just looking at the daily chart, I don't see a whole lot to get excited about here with all the overhead resistance, the embedded stochastic low, and the RSI 7 in no-man's land.  Plus, the latest news out of Tinka headquarters, from almost 2 weeks ago, is that they found some zinc.  *yawn*  Still, if it can break through resistance at the 50 and then successfully retest it on the downside, I'll buy a little.  On the lower end, if it is rejected by the 50, I would set a buy order at .70, since that has been a good buy zone for the last month.

The weekly chart is a bit more interesting, in my opinion. As you can see in the chart below, the last couple times there was a lower BB crash--in October '11 and later in December '11--the stock recovered the middle BB.  After first recovering the middle BB in November, there was a retest of the lower BB, then up above the middle AND holding above the 50wma almost in its entirety, with the exception of a bit of weakness from June-August '12. So what I want to see on this chart is a retest of the lower BB, followed by a strong move to close above the 50wma.  That gives me confidence. 

I also want to see some *new* drill news.  If I go back to the news releases from late December '11 to early January '12, what I see is evidence of "finding what we expected," mineralization-wise.  Look at this language from the release (emphasis mine):  "Hole16 intercepted banded, "zebra-stripe" sandstone and progressed into the underlying siltstone breccia and fluidized sulphide unit. This unit is generally quite thin or nonexistent, but it marks the transition between the underlying Pucura limestone and the overlying Goyllar sandstone unit that hosts the bulk of the silver mineralization at Zone 1. The hole intercepted the high grade veins/faults/gossan zones within the sandstone roughly perpendicular to the dip of the hole, while the intervening fracture-controlled mineralization in the sandstone was intercepted at about 45 degrees to the inclination of the drill hole, on average."  I want to see language like this where there is a marked transition to quality mineralization--from zinc to AG.  

Tinka Update--Booking Profit

Tinka was rejected by the 50dma, so I'm going to book profits here from the .77 tranche.  Not a lot, but I'll take it.  I'm still holding the 3.5% from .91 from April.  I will add back the 2% if there's either (a) a successful retest of the 200dma, or if (b) it's going to close above the 50dma. 

Just Nibblin' (on TK.V)

Got a little more Tinka when it dropped below .80 per the plan.  Should have waited as it went as low as .67 the next day, but my order (2%) filled at .77.  I was glad today to see it up a bit, but since most other miners were down, I'm curious to see if the old pattern of lagging a day behind the mining sector still holds for good old TK.V.  I wasn't bold enough to buy anything else just yet, but I'm watching the stock market for weakness.  Hopefully if there is a top soon, the big boys will begin to rotate back into PMs and miners.

Here's the Tinka chart:

Muppet Miner Positioning and Updates

It's been a month--so I decided to put up some numbers I'm watching.  I've not been trading actively during that month, but contemplating how to trade more methodically.  To that end, I've made myself a spreadsheet with the miners I'm watching, most of which I've traded in the past or still hold.  Currently, I have small positions still in TK, SWD, and SLW.   I will be posting the sheet from time to time--most likely on days when I adjust a price target or buy/sell. 

I'm still nervous about miners because of bullishness I'm reading on the message boards.  However, I will start to reenter in the near future--the above are first tranche prices only.

The Gold:HUI ratio is starting to look better, at least based on the MACD and the declining oversold RSI.

 

On the other hand, the Dow:Gold ratio still looks to have momentum, despite it uber-stretched position over virtually all of its weekly moving-average indicators.  I took profits on my limited involvement in stocks back in February, so if I had some more, I would definitely be well into trimming now.  This ratio is ridiculous, if not historically so...