Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Tinka and Sunward--Yin and Yang

Tinka did wind up moving, and closing, a couple of cents below the 18dma today (18dma @ 1.17, close at 1.15):  right on schedule.

This type of repetition reassures to me that the patterns it has established are in tact.  Unfortunately, my bid at $1.15 went unfilled today, so I had to reinitiate it AH for tomorrow.  It's a small bid, just to try to pick up the remaining 35% of the bid at $1.15 that went unfilled in the partial from yesterday.  I'm not sure I'll get it though.  Both gold and silver showed good strength in the second half of the day, and most miners closed in the green, as well.  The dominant pattern of Tinka being a day behind the mining sector gives me a chance to test the theory again.  Since today started out down for miners, does that mean Tinka will start out down tomorrow and I'll get my bid at $1.15 filled at the open?  Or will it open higher because of the green day close?  This is an interesting question, for me, that will be answered tomorrow.  The less dominant pattern is for Tinka to move below the 18dma for a couple days, so hopefully tomorrow will be partially red, even if it closes up.  It could be a sell off, but to me it doesn't look like it's ready for an ICL-like move down to the lower BB or more.

The other miner I put a bid on today (also unfilled!) was Sunward (SWD.TO).  Sunward has been on it's way down for a while, but I continue to see the value there that made me some good money in late 2011 and the first half of 2012.  The bottom line is, their earnings are down because of capital investments.  However, the property is in a legacy location.  I first bought Sunward for around a dollar, traded it nicely into the lower 2's, then sat on a very small (700 shares) amount as it went down from $1.92 to where it is today.

I decided I was going to start buying below .75 cents if it got there, which it has.  To me, this is a "be right, sit tight" play.  I'm going to end up committing just 2% of my account to it, but the price is right.  I bought the first tranche at .72 a couple weeks ago, and put in a bid for the second on the bounce today.  Sunward is in a good position, with recent mineralizations showing good concentration, and a slight change in management, *appears* resume-wise to be a change for the better, with Gil Leathley taking over as COO.  Moreover, they are at a point where feasibility is completing, drill results are in, and production is being phased in.  From their most recent presser:  
  • Gold and copper recoveries average 75% and 86%, respectively
  • Gold recoveries at the predominantly gold-bearing Northwest Breccia Zone average 85%
  • Focus has moved to conducting engineering and economic studies
Like anything, I could end up eating a Turd Ferguson on this one, but until the momentum changes on the story, I'm happy to buy up to my predetermined percentage at these blood-in-the-streets prices.

Update:  Alexco (AXU) closed at $3.43 today.  $3.40 has been support.  I'm going for it tomorrow, and will put in a limit order for 3.5% tranche at $3.40.  If I average the differences between the tops on the daily chart, I guess the top average will be about $4.30, especially as a bounce at $3.40 would represent a higher low.  If I can get it, that would represent an approx. 26% gain.

Update 2:  AXU order filled at $3.40.  Placed stop just below last summer's low of $3.27 (at $3.26).  Right now price is sitting at $3.31, with a nice medium-length tail down to.... $3.27:)  Hopefully this is the reversal candle, and then AXU can be my new Mining Muppet friend.


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